27th February 2023

Weekly Espresso

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Last Week

  • The UK Government noted a surprise surplus in its finances in January, despite ‘substantial spending’ as part of the ongoing energy crisis. While the month ended with a £5.4bn surplus, economists argue that the figures show a ‘mixed picture’, considering the balance sheet is still weaker than this time last year. However, the positive news is welcomed ahead of Chancellor Hunt’s Budget set to be released on the 15th of March.

  • The Fed’s Mester said Friday that interest rates will likely need to keep moving higher to bring inflation back down to acceptable levels. While she was not able to comment on an exact terminal value, she believed that rates will need to be raised above 5%, and “hold there for time in order to get inflation on a sustainable downward path to 2%”. However, she is hopeful that the Fed will be able to achieve its goal without crushing a labour market which has showed resilience despite all the rate hikes.

  • The average asking price for a UK home rose by just £14 from January to February, the lowest increase for the month since records began over 20 years ago. Historically high mortgage rates and living costs have been squeezing what people are able to afford. While asking prices tend to spike at the start of the year as sellers gear up for spring, Rightmove’s Tim Bannister stated that many are showing unseasonal pricing restraint. Overall, the picture for the market remains bleak, with the OBR predicting a 9% total drop in prices through to Autumn 2024.

Market Pulse

Coming Up

  • EU CPI (Feb YoY) data released March 2nd, 10:00 am.
  • ECB to publish account of Monetary Policy Meeting on March 2nd, 12:30 pm.


The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.Open document settingsOpen publish panel

Risk Barometer


as at latest realignment 31/01/2023


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    Hamilton House, 1 Temple Avenue, London, EC4Y 0HA

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