Blog

19th November 2019

Monday espresso

 

 

 

US equity markets made a new record high last week driven by a broad market rally in Industrial and Technology shares. Market Capitalisation of US Equities now stands at $35.18 Trillion. The US 10 year bond yields rose above 1.8% signalling investors are moving back from safe haven assets into risk assets in the US.

Police aggression in Hong Kong has escalated protests making the violence worse. The Hong Kong economy is set to enter its first recession since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Private consumption, business investment and tourism have all nose-dived suggesting a contraction in fourth quarter GDP growth.

The UK prepares for an election on the 12th of December which could potentially decide the fate and shape of Brexit. Hedge Fund Managers, Bankers and Private Equity managers are all flocking to support Boris Johnson as they believe the Labour Government and its policies would severely harm the financial sector in London.

Tesla Inc., the electric car maker, announced that it would build its European Giga-factory in Germany instead of the UK due to Brexit uncertainty. Tesla Giga-factories currently in operation in US and China are typically 4.9 million square feet in size and employ over 2,500 workers.

 

  The US University of Michigan Sentiment indicator will be reported on Friday, November 22 with an expectation of 95.8.

UK Manufacturing PMI will be reporting on Friday, November 22 and is expected to come in at 48.5 indicating a contraction of UK manufacturing.

 

+0.59*

-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 18/11/19

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

0

as at latest realignment

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    Copia Capital Management

    Fleet House, 8-12 New Bridge Street, EC4V 6AL

    Copia Capital Management is a trading name of Novia Financial Plc. Novia Financial Plc is a limited company registered in England & Wales. Register Number: 06467886. Registered office: Cambridge House, Henry St, Bath, Somerset BA1 1JS. Novia Financial Plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Register Number: 481600.

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