Blog

4th November 2019

Monday Espresso

 

 

 

On Monday October 28, Boris Johnson offered to hold an early general election on December 12 and on Thursday October 31, the proposal became law after passing UK House of Commons and approved by Queen Elizabeth II.

On Wednesday October 30, the US Fed cut the interest rate the third time in 2019 by 25bps taking the federal funds target range down to 1.50%-1.75% and the decision was again backed by considerations of “muted inflationary pressures” and “global developments for the economic outlook”.

On Friday, Google announced an acquisition of the smartwatch company Fitbit for $2.1bn, or $7.35 per share to seek development in fitness tracking area.

Last week, US employment data for October was released. The nonfarm payroll employment increased by 128,000, topping the estimate of 90,000 and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in 50 years.

  On Thursday November 7, analysts expect the Bank of England to hold its current interest rate at 0.75%.

China CPI for October will be announced on Saturday November 9, with an expectation of 3.2% YoY.

 

+0.56*

-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 31/10/19

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

0

as at latest realignment

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    Copia Capital Management

    Fleet House, 8-12 New Bridge Street, EC4V 6AL

    Copia Capital Management is a trading name of Novia Financial Plc. Novia Financial Plc is a limited company registered in England & Wales. Register Number: 06467886. Registered office: Cambridge House, Henry St, Bath, Somerset BA1 1JS. Novia Financial Plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Register Number: 481600.

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