Blog

17th August 2020

Monday Espresso

On Saturday August 8, Trump signed four executive orders as the economic relief during the coronavirus pandemic, including deferring payroll tax for people earning less than $100,000 as well as student loan payments, extending the unemployment benefit and providing eviction protections for renters.

On Monday August 10, the US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden announced Kamala Harris as his Vice President running mate. Harris, a junior Senator from California since 2017, was previously a presidential candidate in 2020 US presidential election.

On Wednesday August 12, the data released by the Office for National Statistics shows that UK GDP for the second quarter of 2020 contracted by 20.4%, marking the first recession since the financial crisis in 2008. The services and production sectors declined 19.9% and 16.9% respectively, while the construction sector dropped the most by 35.0%.

Trump said on Thursday August 13 that the US will keep the current 25% tariffs imposed on EU goods and 15% tariffs on Airbus aircraft, and accused EU of cheating in the aircraft subsidies case.

  UK CPI will be announced on Wednesday August 19, with an expectation of 0.6% YoY.

On Friday August 21, Eurozone Composite PMI will be released and is expected to come in at 55.1.

-0.47*

-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 31/07/20

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

0

as at latest realignment

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    Copia Capital Management

    Fleet House, 8-12 New Bridge Street, EC4V 6AL

    Copia Capital Management is a trading name of Novia Financial Plc. Novia Financial Plc is a limited company registered in England & Wales. Register Number: 06467886. Registered office: Cambridge House, Henry St, Bath, Somerset BA1 1JS. Novia Financial Plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Register Number: 481600.

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