- Philip Hammond produced his Spring Budget, with growth forecasted to fare better in the short-run with the UK economy expected to grow by 2% in 2017 (up from 1.4% previously). Other points of note included: decreases in expected public borrowing, cuts on tax-free dividend allowances and a crackdown on off-shore pension transfers by imposing a 25% tax charge.
- The price of a barrel of oil fell below $50 for the first time this year, as surging US crude inventories swelled more than expected, raising concerns that the global supply glut could persist regardless of OPEC cuts.
- Aberdeen Asset Management and Standard Life agreed a merger in what would create Europe’s second largest asset managers with total assets exceeding £660bn.
- Mario Draghi said the ECB no longer had a “sense of urgency” to take further action of monetary stimulus, suggesting to markets its bond buying program could start to ease. After these comments the Euro closed higher against its peers.
- On Wednesday 15 we will see the Quarterly UK Unemployment Rate for January 17, with expectations of no change leaving the rate of UK unemployment at 4.8%.
- On Wednesday 15 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are due to meet and will make a decision on the federal funds rate with current market expectations strongly suggesting a rate hike to 1%.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 20/02/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.