- It was a tumultuous week for the pound (£) against the dollar ($). At the start of the week, the currency fell to its lowest level since October, on the back of hard Brexit comments made by UK Prime Minister Theresa May. However, by the end of the week, the pound rallied against a weaker dollar after US President-elect Donald Trump came under fire over his alleged ties with Russia and vague approach on fiscal policy at his first public press conference since July.
- Not only has FTSE 100 started the year breaking its all-time high, but has continued to do so for a record number of consecutive trading days. The previous record stood at 8 days set in 1997, but as of Friday 13th it had surpassed this record, with an impressive 12 day run. Note that the FTSE 100 strength is in part driven by sterling weakness owing to the high proportion of overseas earnings in the companies that make up the index.
- Another US car maker hit the headlines last week in relation to emissions. On Thursday, the US Environmental Protection Agency accused Fiat Chrysler of violating emission laws, sending the stock plummeting down 18%.
Source: Bloomberg, Copia Capital Management. See Notice.
- Today, Monday 16 January – fourth-quarter US earnings season unofficially kick-offs with the release of Alcoa’s (NYSE: AA) results.
- Tuesday 17 January – we will see UK CPI YoY with expectations at 1.4%.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilits our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of 1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilits our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 19/12/16