- During the final quarter of 2016, Japan’s economy grew at an annualised rate of 1%. The is well above long run growth expectations of 0.5%, suggesting ‘Abenomics’ has had a positive effect on growth in the Japanese economy
- Increased investment from China in Europe has led to many countries within the EU to call on Brussels to increase their veto power over Chinese takeovers, as a fresh wave of protectionism sweeps across Europe
- The S&P500 market capitalization topped $20 trillion for the very first time, as US president Donald Trump vowed to make a major tax announcement in the coming weeks, leading to optimistic sentiment on the US economy
- The Eurozone looks increasing likely to miss the impending deadline for a Greek bailout, as EU officials struggle to come to an agreement with the International Monetary Fund
- On Wednesday 22 February we have UK YoY GDP with current expectations at 2.2%
- On Friday 24 February we have New House Sales in the US, with current expectations at 573k
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of 1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 31/1/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.