- Following the most recent meeting, the Bank of England have given their strongest guidance yet that they will look to increase their benchmark rate by the end of the year, most likely in November. This increased hawkish tone comes after higher than expected inflation and a drop in the UK jobless rate to a 42-year low.
- Bitcoin experienced a large sell off after BTCChina, one of China’s largest Bitcoin exchanges, said it plans to halt trading at the end of this month. Added to this, JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon, described the crypto-currency as a “fraud” and “worse than tulip bulbs”.
- US crude oil rose above $50. This was due to a combination of on-going supply restrictions from both OPEC and Russia and an increase in global demand, which has climbed the most since 2015, according to a monthly report from The International Energy Agency.
- During his annual address to the European Parliament, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, said “the wind is back in Europe’s sails”, emphasising a bullish outlook for the EU post Brexit.
- On Wednesday 20 September we will have the release of UK Retail Sales YoY, with markets expecting an increase of 1.2%.
- On Wednesday 20 September we will see the latest FOMC rate decision, with the market expecting no change in their key interest rate and for it to remain at 1.25%.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 12/09/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.