- Following their most recent meeting, the European Central Bank said it will set out plans next month with the aim of ending its €2tn economic stimulus programme, after seven years of monetary easing. This message sent the euro(€) higher (close to a three-year high) versus the US Dollar($).
- United States President, Donald Trump, has reached an agreement with the Democratic leaders for a three-month extension to the US debt ceiling as part of a $15.25bn bill to provide funds for Hurricane Harvey victims.
- The Norwegian sovereign-wealth fund, the largest in the world, has dramatically changed how its bond portfolio is measured, now recommending that only government bonds in dollars($), euro(€) and sterling(£) are to make up its benchmark index.
- Investors piled out of the insurance and reinsurance sector as hurricane “Irma” was set to touch down in Florida. “Irma” was initially registered as a category 5, the highest level of storm strength, with Credit Suisse estimating that the insured losses could hit $125 billion or more, making “Irma” the costliest hurricane in U.S. history.
- On Thursday 14 September we have the UK Bank of England official rate decision with the market expecting no change and for the benchmark rate to remain at 0.25%.
- On Friday 15 September we will have US Industrial production MoM, with markets expecting production to grow by 0.1% in the month of August.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 21/08/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.