- In a recent interview Gary Cohn, head of the White House National Economic Council, said US president Donald Trump will continue to focus on passing major tax reforms by the year’s end. Cohn said “Starting next week, the President’s agenda and calendar is going to revolve around tax reform.”
- Both gasoline and oil prices saw a late rally in prices as “Hurricane Harvey” was set to make landfall in Texas, the first to hit the state in nearly 10 years. Investors fear that if severe damage is done to any refineries in Texas, a key US energy production region, international trade could be impacted.
- The Euro (€) hit an 8-year high against the Pound (£) after a series of better than expected economic indicators were released, which has caused the Euro to strengthen. In contrast, the Pound continues to weaken as productivity declines and political uncertainty surrounding Brexit remains.
- Rathbones is in talks with Smith & Williamson over a possible £2bn merger, which would create a group with close to £56bn of assets under management. Rathbones confirmed the discussions stating, “Discussions are on-going and there can be no certainty any transaction will be agreed. However, if agreed, any such transaction will be subject to the approval of shareholders.”
- On Friday 1 September we will have the release of UK Manufacturing PMI data for the month of August, which the market believes will fall slightly from 55.1 to 55.0.
- On Friday 1 September we will have the release the US unemployment rate for the month of August, with market expectations at 4.3%.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 21/08/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.