- Investors moved into safe haven assets as tension between the US and North Korea escalated. Donald Trump warned he would bring “Fire and fury like the world has never seen” which caused equity markets to experience moderate declines whilst the VIX, a key measure of market volatility, rose sharply.
- Credit Suisse has banned its traders from buying or selling certain Venezuelan bond issues, as political tensions in the country intensify. The bank made the following statement: “In light of the political climate and recent events in Venezuela, and actions taken by the current government, we want to ensure that Credit Suisse does not provide the means for anyone to violate the human rights of the Venezuelan people”.
- Oil prices ended close to a three month high, after OPEC raised its global oil demand forecasts upwards, anticipating that total oil demand is to average 96.5m barrels per day for the rest of 2017.
- India’s government has said the number of tax returns filled in so far this year is up by 25%, after imposing multiple measures to crackdown on tax evasion, which involved removing large currency banknotes from circulation earlier in the year.
- On Tuesday 15 August we will see the release of UK YoY Harmonised CPI, with the market expecting to see a slight rise in inflation to 2.7%.
- On Thursday 17 August we will see the release of US MoM industrial production, with markets expecting an increase of 0.3%.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 17/07/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.