- The BoE kept rates unchanged at its latest meeting, with both the Pound (£) and gilt yields weakening as a result. Bank of England governor Mark Carney said the UK financial services sector could double in size, in a post-Brexit world, over the next 25 years potentially reaching up to 20 times the UK’s GDP.
- US president Donald Trump signed a bill imposing sanctions on Russia, following their alleged involvement in meddling with last year’s US elections. However, Mr Trump was not in favour of these sanctions describing the legislation as “seriously flawed” and “unconstitutional”, stating he only signed the bill for the sake of “national unity”.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another milestone reaching a level of 22,000 for the first time, after Apple (the largest constituent of the index) posted better than expected quarterly earnings, with the stock rising close to 5%.
- For the first time in over a decade, Iraq had its first independent bond sale of a $1bn bond, maturing in 2023 with a fixed yield of 6.75%. Investors welcomed the sale as, with low interest rates across most of developed markets, investors are showing a willingness to accept risk to achieve higher returns.
- On Thursday 10 August we will see the release of UK Industrial production MoM, with expectations that the output from industrial establishments will increase by 0.1%.
- On Friday 11 August we will see the release of US CPI Urban Consumer MoM with expectations that this this will increase by 0.2%.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 17/07/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.