- The BoC, Canada’s central bank, became the latest in a growing list of central banks outside of the US to shift to monetary tightening, after raising their key rate upward by 0.25%, to 0.75%. This was their first hike since 2011 and comes on the back of an uptick in inflation.
- For the first time, the UK government admitted to having “obligations to the EU…” that will need to be resolved during Britain’s process to leave the European Union. Early reports suggest that the UK’s exit liabilities will stand at close to €100bn gross.
- Janet Yellen testified to congress on a broad range of topics relating to the current state of the US economy, whilst also being questioned on her future as Fed Chair. Mrs Yellen mentioned that the Federal Reserve were watching inflation very closely given its failure to meet the central bank’s target, as well citing that the Fed will look to continue gradually increasing rates and begin decreases in their balance sheet.
- Less than five months after leading the IPO of Snap, the parent company of popular messaging app Snapchat, Morgan Stanley has downgraded the stock and cut its target price from $28 to $16. This news caused Snap’s shares to fall 8%, meaning they are now down 42% from their opening day high.
- On Tuesday 18 July we will have the release of UK Core CPI YoY, with market expectations set at 2.6%.
- On Thursday 20 July we will see the release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless data, with expectations that the number of people in the US to have filed for unemployment claims, for the first time, to come in close to 245,000.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 03/07/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.