- There was an unexpected increase in the number of Bank of England policymakers supporting an increase in interest rates. The expectation was for a 7-1 vote against a hike, but it ended up being much closer with a vote of 5-3 against a rate hike. The pound (£) closed higher on this news.
- Greece has agreed a deal with its creditors on the next tranche of their bailout package, with Euro-area finance ministers agreeing to release £7bn in new loans, which will ensure Greece will not default on the payments which are due next month.
- French president Emmanuel Macron said “the door remains open” to the UK staying in the EU whilst meeting with Theresa May. After the outcome of the recent UK elections, Mrs May’s stance on a “hard” Brexit has softened as she continues to work on firming up her minority government.
- After a strong start to the year, the FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) saw a sharp selloff, with the Nasdaq-100 closing near a 4-week low.
- On Monday 19 June we will see the release of the UK Rightmove National Asking price YoY, with expectations that this will show an increase of 2% in national property prices compared to last year.
- On Thursday 22 June we will see the release of the US Initial Jobless Claims, with expectations that the number of people who have filed jobless claims over the past week to come in at 241,000.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 22/05/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.