- Emmanuel Macron swept to victory in the French election, defeating far right candidate Marine Le Pen with 66% of the vote. The Euro closed on a six month high following this result.
- The Federal Reserve believes that the recent slowdown in US growth is only temporary, as it slowed to an annual rate of just 0.7% in the first quarter of this year. On the back of this statement, the market believe that the Federal Reserve will look to raise rates in June with the market pricing in the probability of a hike at 100%.
- The House of Republicans in the US, narrowly approved legislation to repeal and replace parts of the Affordable Care Act, also referred to as Obama Care.
- Manufacturing in Britain surged to its fastest pace in three years during the month of April, with the IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 57.3 for the month.
- On Thursday 11 we have the decision on the UK Bank of England Rate, with the market expecting no change and for the rate to remain at 0.25%.
- On Thursday 11 we will have the release of US Initial Jobless claims with expectations at 245,000.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 24/04/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.