- British Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50, which has started the UK’s 2-year countdown for leaving the European Union, after which May declared “This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back”.
- Emerging market currencies have had one of their best quarters in almost 5 years, on the back of strengthening economic resilience in China and doubts over Donald Trump’s policy agenda. The Mexican Peso is up close to 10% since the start of the year versus the US Dollar.
- The Saudi Arabian government slashed income taxes paid by national oil giant Saudi Aramco from 85% to 50%. The company which plans to IPO next year is expected to be the world’s largest equity sale.
- El Salvador has become the first country in the world to ban metals mining, with their environment minister, Lina Pohl declaring “This is a brave step, an extraordinary step, and an enormous step towards reverting the environmental degradation in this country.”
- On Friday 7 April we will see the release of UK MoM industrial production with market expectations seeing a decline of -0.1%.
- On Friday 7 April we will see the release of US MoM Nonfarm payrolls with market expectations seeing an increase of 174,000 jobs to be added to the economy.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 20/02/17
Notice:
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.
