- After nearly four years of negotiation, the EU and Japan have formally agreed to a free trade deal, allowing goods to be traded between the two areas without tariff barriers. The early estimates from the EU are that this deal will boost exports to Japan to upwards of €100bn a year.
- The release of the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting showed to markets that several officials are keen to start the process of reducing the Fed’s inflated balance sheet sooner rather than later, in spite of recent weak inflation readings
- According to the Office of National Statistics, since the UK voted to leave the EU last year, disposable income per person (once adjusted for inflation) has fallen by close to 2%. This indicates that UK citizens have become worse off following the vote.
- A data glitch caused multiple Nasdaq tech stocks to reset to $123.47, resulting in companies such as Zynga increasing in price by more than 3,000%. The glitch appears to have occurred due to some issuers using test data, routinely sent out by exchanges, for their live pricing streams.
- On Wednesday 12 July we will see the release of the change in UK Monthly Jobless claims, with expectations of an additional 7,300 people claiming for unemployment benefits.
- On Friday 14 July we will have the release of US Industrial Production MoM, with expectations of an increase of 0.3% on the previous month.
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 03/07/17
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.